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The European Union is gearing up for a potential trade war with the US as President Trump pushes for higher tariffs, threatening a no-deal outcome by the August 1 deadline. The EU is drafting retaliatory measures, including restrictions on US digital services and public procurement access, while member states like Germany signal readiness for conflict if negotiations fail. Trump’s proposed tariffs range from 15-20% on EU goods to 50% on Brazilian imports, disrupting months of talks and affecting global trade partners like Canada and Mexico. US industries, such as steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs, welcome the protectionist policies, but retailers struggle with uncertainty over import costs for holiday goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prioritizes high-quality deals over rushed agreements, leaving room for deadline flexibility, while countries like Brazil brace for economic redirection if tariffs hit. The escalating tensions highlight the delicate balance of trade negotiations and the broader economic implications worldwide.
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Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) saw its stock rise 6% after revealing a $2 billion investment in bitcoin and related securities, fulfilling a May plan to become a bitcoin treasury company. This move positions bitcoin as two-thirds of its $3 billion asset portfolio, with an additional $300 million allocated for bitcoin-related options. Led by CEO Devin Nunes, the company aims to secure financial independence and shield itself from institutional discrimination while planning a utility token for its Truth Social platform. Concurrently, President Trump signed legislation creating a federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, boosting crypto adoption, and supported a new stablecoin (USD1) through World Liberty Financial. Inspired by MicroStrategy’s bitcoin acquisition strategy, Trump Media joins other firms stockpiling cryptocurrencies, though its stock has dropped 25% since May and 45% year-to-date, drawing skepticism from short sellers about the sustainability of such strategies. This development reflects Trump’s deepening ties to the crypto industry amid evolving regulatory landscapes.
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A growing number of non-banking companies, including automakers like General Motors and Stellantis, and cryptocurrency firms like Circle and Ripple, are applying for US banking charters, sparking tension with traditional banks. These new entrants seek charters such as industrial loan company (ILC) status or national trust banking charters, which could allow them to offer banking services with less stringent regulations. Banks and lobbying groups like the Bank Policy Institute and ICBA oppose this, arguing it creates a regulatory double standard and poses risks, citing past failures like GMAC’s 2008 collapse. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reviewing financial regulations, potentially easing rules for banks and new entrants alike, while the FDIC is adjusting its approach to ILC approvals. Crypto and fintech firms are also pursuing charters to gain credibility and comply with new laws like the GENIUS Act, as even major banks like JPMorgan explore stablecoin innovations. This clash over banking access highlights broader concerns about competition, consumer safety, and the evolving financial landscape.
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are close to record highs, showing resilience amid escalating tariffs and monetary policy debates, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1.6% and the S&P 500 up 0.7% last week. A significant earnings season is underway, with 112 S&P 500 companies, including Alphabet, Tesla, and Chipotle, set to report, and Big Tech expected to lead with a 14.1% earnings growth compared to the rest of the index at 3.4%. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has called for an interest rate cut in July, citing inflation near target, though market expectations for a cut have diminished to just 5% due to persistent inflation and robust economic indicators like retail sales. Meanwhile, a quiet week of economic data will focus on manufacturing and services sectors as the Fed enters a blackout period before its July 29-30 meeting. Despite strong earnings from companies like Netflix and big banks, stock reactions have been muted due to high valuations and elevated expectations, raising concerns among strategists about potential pullbacks if results disappoint. The market anticipates a broadening of earnings growth beyond Big Tech in coming quarters, which could support a more sustained rally if cyclical sectors show improvement.
