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This article explores the fluctuating dynamics of Wall Street amidst policy shifts and trade tensions, spotlighting the "TACO" trade—an acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out." This concept embodies the belief that President Trump frequently adopts a tough stance on tariffs but seldom acts on it, a pattern that has recently bolstered market confidence, especially after a US-China tariff deescalation. However, Trump's recent accusations against China on Truth Social and potential tech restrictions have introduced volatility, though markets, including the S&P 500 with its best May since 1990, largely adhere to the TACO narrative. Despite this, concerns linger as strategists like Julie Beale worry that Trump's reaction to the TACO label might prompt firmer tariff policies, heightening uncertainty. Meanwhile, retail traders exploit this uncertainty, buying dips in unprecedented numbers to leverage the predictable cycle of threats and deescalation, thus benefiting from market upswings.
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Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) faces a potential stock drop of 15% to 25% if US District Judge Amit Mehta orders the divestiture of its Chrome browser, as warned by Barclays analysts. This follows Google's loss in a landmark antitrust trial in August 2024, where it was found guilty of monopolizing the search engine market. The Department of Justice has proposed severe remedies, including selling Chrome, sharing search data with rivals, and ending exclusivity deals that position Google as the default search engine on devices. Barclays analyst Ross Sandler highlighted that Chrome, with 4 billion users, contributes 35% of Google’s search revenue, making its potential sale a significant blow, possibly cutting Alphabet’s earnings per share by 30%. While the likelihood of divestiture remains low, it has risen after recent closing arguments. Judge Mehta’s remedy decision is anticipated in August, and Google plans to appeal. Separately, Alphabet agreed to a $500 million settlement with shareholders over antitrust compliance issues. Alphabet’s stock fell 1.5% on Monday and is down 10.6% year to date, reflecting investor concerns over these legal challenges.
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A growing divide within the Federal Reserve centers on how to address potential inflation from President Trump’s tariffs, with some officials like Governor Chris Waller advocating for overlooking temporary price increases and remaining open to rate cuts in 2025 if inflation nears the 2% target and the job market holds strong. Conversely, others, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, caution against cuts, citing risks of persistent inflation from tariffs and supply chain issues, and prefer maintaining current rates until clarity emerges on trade policies. Waller believes tariff effects will be fleeting, lacking the severe disruptions seen during the pandemic, while recent Fed minutes and Trump’s decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% fuel concerns about longer-term price pressures. Logan stresses the importance of patience, noting that monetary policy is well-positioned to adapt as risks evolve, and warns against premature rate cuts that could spark inflation. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges uncertainty but remains optimistic about a path to lower rates if current challenges subside. The debate continues as the Fed balances its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment amidst evolving trade dynamics.
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The U.S. Senate is in the final stages of debating the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a bill to regulate stablecoin issuers like Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC. Having cleared the Senate Banking Committee and an initial floor vote with bipartisan support, the bill could become the first major crypto legislation to pass the Senate if approved this week. However, it faces challenges from over 50 amendments, including unrelated proposals like the Credit Card Competition Act, which analysts give low odds of passing. Crypto lobbying groups, including the Blockchain Association, are urging lawmakers to stay focused on stablecoin oversight. While Capital Alpha Partners estimates a 60-65% chance of the bill becoming law this year, it still requires House approval, where further revisions may occur. This legislative effort, under scrutiny amid concerns over political ties, represents a critical step for crypto regulation in the U.S.
