'That's the million-dollar question': Wall Street divided on Fed rate cuts as tariff uncertainty lingers

Key Points

• Meta Platforms Inc. has hired key AI researchers Mark Lee and Tom Gunter from Apple Inc. for its Superintelligence Labs team, following the recruitment of their former boss, Ruoming Pang.
• Meta is aggressively recruiting AI talent, offering substantial compensation packages, with Pang receiving over $200 million and Gunter joining a group with packages exceeding $100 million.
• Apple's AI team, the Apple Foundation Models (AFM), is experiencing turmoil, with potential reliance on external models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Anthropic’s Claude for Apple Intelligence features.
• Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg has prioritized AI, planning to invest hundreds of billions in computing power to develop superintelligence, and placing top AI hires near his desk for collaboration.
• Apple is attempting to retain talent with raises, but these are significantly lower than Meta’s offers, contributing to ongoing staff departures.

Summary

Meta Platforms Inc. is intensifying its pursuit of AI dominance by hiring key researchers Mark Lee and Tom Gunter from Apple Inc. for its Superintelligence Labs team, shortly after recruiting their former boss, Ruoming Pang, with a compensation package exceeding $200 million. This reflects a broader tech industry race for AI talent, with Meta, under CEO Mark Zuckerberg, prioritizing artificial intelligence through massive investments in personnel and infrastructure to rival companies like OpenAI and Google. Meanwhile, Apple’s AI division, the Apple Foundation Models team, faces uncertainty as it considers integrating external models such as ChatGPT or Claude for features like Siri, while struggling to retain staff against Meta’s lucrative offers. Despite Apple’s efforts to offer raises, the disparity in compensation—Meta’s packages often multiples higher—continues to drive talent away. Zuckerberg’s vision includes investing hundreds of billions in computing power to achieve superintelligence, with top hires working closely with him at Meta’s headquarters, underscoring his commitment to building an elite AI team.

Key Points

• China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao emphasized the need to stabilize trade relations with the U.S., urging the U.S. to act responsibly as a major power.
• China faces an August 12 deadline to finalize a tariff agreement with the U.S., with potential global supply chain disruptions if no deal is reached.
• Recent negotiations in Europe highlighted that a tariff war is unnecessary, with Wang advocating for dialogue to manage differences.
• Nvidia will resume selling H20 AI chips to China, a decision linked to broader negotiations on rare earths exports.
• Wang noted that forced decoupling between the U.S. and China is impractical, as both nations rely on irreplaceable goods and services.

Summary

China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao expressed a strong desire to stabilize trade relations with the United States, emphasizing the economic interdependence between the two nations despite recent tensions. Speaking to reporters, Wang urged the U.S. to act as a responsible superpower and highlighted the importance of dialogue, citing productive talks in Geneva and London as evidence that a tariff war is avoidable. With an August 12 deadline looming for a durable tariff agreement, failure to reach a deal could disrupt global supply chains with duties exceeding 100%. Wang also met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who confirmed the resumption of H20 AI chip sales to China, a move tied to negotiations on rare earths, which saw a 32% export increase in June. Despite high U.S. tariffs on China at 53.6%, Wang stressed that forced decoupling is unfeasible due to the irreplaceable nature of traded goods and services. China remains committed to avoiding a trade war but is prepared to defend its interests if necessary, seeking a path toward healthy and sustainable economic ties with the U.S. through continued communication and cooperation.

Key Points

• Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller strongly advocates for a rate cut at the upcoming July 29-30 policy meeting, suggesting a target rate of 3%, significantly lower than the current 4.25%-4.5%.
• Waller argues that inflation from tariffs is temporary and the Fed should focus on employment, citing slowing private sector job growth and increasing downside risks to the labor market.
• There is a divide within the Fed, with some officials like Adriana Kugler and John Williams opposing immediate rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariffs, expecting it to rise in the coming months.
• Waller’s stance aligns with President Trump’s push for lower rates, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others advocate for more time to assess inflation trends.
• The debate highlights opposing views within the Fed on how tariffs and economic data should influence monetary policy decisions.

Summary

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has made a compelling case for a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, proposing a target rate of 3%, well below the current 4.25%-4.5%. Speaking in New York, Waller emphasized that inflation from tariffs is temporary and urged the Fed to prioritize employment, noting slowing private job growth and rising labor market risks. His position, supported by colleague Michelle Bowman and aligning with President Trump’s calls for lower rates, contrasts with other Fed officials like Adriana Kugler and John Williams, who caution against cuts due to potential inflation from tariffs, predicting increases through 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also favors waiting for clearer inflation data, highlighting a deepening divide within the central bank. This debate underscores differing views on balancing inflation control with employment goals amid external pressures and tariff impacts.