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Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high of $111,970, currently trading at $109,519, but Bitfinex analysts warn of insufficient fundamental support to surpass this level. They highlight the risk of short-term corrections without a strong catalyst, especially if long-term holders sell during this period of sideways price movement near ATH levels. Investors who bought in Q1 2025 at a low of $78,513 are now up 39%, facing a pivotal decision that could shape market trends. A sudden sell-off might lead to prolonged consolidation, a pattern seen after Bitcoin’s March 2024 peak of $73,679. Meanwhile, $1.08 billion in short positions risk liquidation if the ATH is reclaimed. Analysts are monitoring macroeconomic factors, including the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on June 18, which could influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin, and ongoing uncertainties around US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, seen as a significant threat to bullish momentum. Despite a 5.21% price increase over the past 30 days, the absence of clear catalysts and potential policy stagnation could trap Bitcoin in a cycle of uncertainty for the near future.
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The US has ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy staff in Baghdad and authorized families of military personnel to leave the region due to escalating tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran has threatened to target US military bases in the Middle East if negotiations collapse and it is attacked, with its Defense Minister warning of significant retaliatory losses for the US. Reports also suggest Israel is preparing for a potential operation against Iran, prompting the Trump administration to advise some Americans to depart. President Trump has expressed dwindling confidence in nuclear talks, while Iran is preparing a new proposal for discussions in Muscat. The heightened tensions have broader implications, with the UK Navy issuing warnings about potential military escalation impacting shipping through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets reacted sharply, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising over 5% amid security concerns. The situation remains fluid, with the US Central Command coordinating with allies to maintain readiness, as geopolitical strife continues to threaten stability in the region.
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Oil prices fell on Thursday, with Brent crude dropping 0.4% to $69.47 a barrel and WTI declining 0.3% to $67.92, reversing earlier gains in Asian trading. The decline follows a surge of over 4% the previous day, driven by heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and U.S. decisions to reposition personnel in the Middle East ahead of nuclear talks with Iran scheduled for Sunday in Oman. President Trump reiterated his stance against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iran insists its nuclear activities are peaceful. Analysts, including Vivek Dhar from Commonwealth Bank Australia, suggest the recent price spike above $70 was excessive, anticipating a pullback but a lingering geopolitical premium until talks clarify outcomes. The U.S. is also partially evacuating its Iraqi embassy and allowing military dependents to leave certain Middle Eastern locations due to security risks. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels last week, surpassing expectations. Market participants are cautious, with some betting on reduced tensions post-talks, though Trump’s skepticism about reaching a deal and Iran’s warnings of retaliation if provoked add uncertainty to the oil market outlook.
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Asia Morning Briefing highlights key trends in crypto and financial markets as Asia starts its Thursday. Ethereum (ETH) trades at $2,770, up 11% this month, outpacing Bitcoin (BTC) due to institutional demand and its DeFi-TradFi bridging role, dominating derivatives trading. BTC, despite volatility, sees strong institutional accumulation. The stablecoin market reached a record $228 billion, with Tron attracting significant inflows, while Ethereum and Solana lose capital. AI agent economies are emerging, with crypto blockchains proposed as infrastructure for interoperable transactions, supported by initiatives from Coinbase and others. Web3 gaming, though leading in dAPPs, faces declining market share and funding due to unengaging gameplay and misplaced focus on tokenomics. Market movements show BTC slipping 2% to test $108.5K support, while ETH surged 5% past $2,800 on $815M ETF inflows. Gold rose nearly 1% on cooling U.S. inflation, and Tokyo stocks opened mixed. Despite macro uncertainties and geopolitical risks, institutional conviction in crypto remains strong, with ETH eyeing $3,000.
