Y Combinator is looking for DOGE-related startups for its next cohort — and 5 other themes

Key Points

• July Jobs Report Expectations: Economists anticipate nonfarm payrolls to increase by 105,000 in July, a decrease from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.**
• Labor Market Slowing: Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with private payrolls growing by 104,000 in July per ADP, though overall hiring momentum has slowed.**
• Federal Reserve's Stance: The Fed held interest rates steady in July, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the labor market as "solid" despite signs of slowing job creation.**
• Consumer Spending as Key Indicator: ADP's chief economist suggests that consumer spending will be a critical measure of labor market health amidst recalibration to lower hiring levels.**
• Job Openings and Hiring Rates: June data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a decline in job openings to 7.44 million and a hiring rate drop to 3.3%, the lowest since November 2024.**

Summary

The upcoming July jobs report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to reflect a slowdown in hiring with nonfarm payrolls projected to rise by 105,000, down from June’s 147,000, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.2% from 4.1%. This data comes amid growing investor scrutiny of the US labor market for signs of cooling that might influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Recent figures, including ADP’s report of 104,000 private payroll gains in July and a decline in job openings to 7.44 million in June, underscore a moderating labor market. Despite this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the market as "solid" after maintaining steady rates in July, noting a balance due to reduced labor supply from lower immigration. Analysts like BofA’s Shruti Mishra view the market as moderating rather than deteriorating, while ADP’s Nela Richardson highlights consumer spending as a key health indicator. Additional data shows hiring rates at their lowest since November 2024, yet layoffs remain low, allowing the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach on policy amidst inflation and tariff concerns.

Key Points

• DOGE experienced an 8% drop from $0.22 to $0.21 between July 31 and August 1, one of the steepest declines this month.
• Trading volume surged to 1.25 billion DOGE around midnight, far exceeding the 24-hour average of 365 million, indicating heavy liquidation activity.
• Resistance at $0.23 held strong, while $0.21 emerged as short-term support with signs of stabilization.
• Institutional wallets accumulated 310 million DOGE during the dip, and Bit Origin added 40 million DOGE to its treasury.
• Broader crypto market sentiment remains pressured by macroeconomic uncertainty, including inflation and interest rate ambiguity.

Summary

Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a significant 8% decline from $0.22 to $0.21 between July 31 and August 1, marking one of the steepest daily drops this month. The price fluctuated within a $0.03 range, peaking at $0.23 and bottoming at $0.20, with strong resistance at the upper limit and stabilization near $0.21. Trading volume spiked to 1.25 billion DOGE around midnight, nearly triple the daily average, suggesting intense liquidation and cascading sell orders. Despite the downturn, institutional wallets accumulated 310 million DOGE, and Bit Origin added 40 million to its treasury as part of a $500 million diversification strategy. The broader crypto market faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, with inflation and interest rate concerns dampening sentiment. Technically, repeated tests of $0.21 support and a narrowing price band hint at potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Traders are now monitoring whether DOGE can hold above the $0.20–$0.21 range, alongside macroeconomic signals and further institutional accumulation.

Key Points

• Tariff Deadline: President Trump's tariff agenda faces a critical deadline on August 1, setting a new baseline rate of 15% on most global imports, with higher rates looming for key nations like Canada (35%), India (25%), Brazil (50%), and Mexico (30%).**
• Failed Negotiations: Talks with Canada, India, and Brazil have stalled for diverse reasons, straining relations with major US trading partners and leaving importers facing potential tariff hikes.**
• US-China Relations: A potential 90-day pause on tariff hikes with China is under discussion, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating progress toward a deal.**
• Legal Challenges: A federal appeals court will hear arguments on the legality of Trump's authority to impose these tariffs, adding uncertainty to the administration's plans.**
• Economic Impact: While markets remain largely unaffected for now, ongoing trade tensions with significant partners suggest continued negotiations and potential economic repercussions.**

Summary

President Trump's tariff agenda approaches a pivotal August 1 deadline, establishing a 15% baseline rate on most global imports, with higher tariffs threatened for key nations like Canada (35%), India (25%), Brazil (50%), and Mexico (30%). Negotiations with Canada, India, and Brazil have faltered due to differing issues, risking strained relations with major US trading partners and higher costs for importers. Meanwhile, a potential 90-day pause on tariff hikes with China shows promise, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hints at an imminent deal. Legal challenges also loom, with a federal appeals court set to review Trump's authority to impose these tariffs. Despite limited immediate economic impact—partly due to agreements like the USMCA allowing duty-free trade with Canada and Mexico—Trump's rhetoric, including social media criticisms of Canada and India, underscores ongoing tensions. Brazil faces particularly harsh 50% tariffs linked to political disputes over former President Jair Bolsonaro's trial, drawing criticism for the use of emergency powers. While markets remain focused on Big Tech earnings, unresolved trade issues with significant partners suggest negotiations will persist, shaping future US economic relations.