Waller makes strongest call yet for rate cut in July, underscoring Fed divide

Key Points

  • Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller strongly advocates for a rate cut at the upcoming July 29-30 policy meeting, suggesting a target rate of 3%, significantly lower than the current 4.25%-4.5%.
  • Waller argues that inflation from tariffs is temporary and the Fed should focus on employment, citing slowing private sector job growth and increasing downside risks to the labor market.
  • There is a divide within the Fed, with some officials like Adriana Kugler and John Williams opposing immediate rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariffs, expecting it to rise in the coming months.
  • Waller’s stance aligns with President Trump’s push for lower rates, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others advocate for more time to assess inflation trends.
  • The debate highlights opposing views within the Fed on how tariffs and economic data should influence monetary policy decisions.

Summary

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has made a compelling case for a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, proposing a target rate of 3%, well below the current 4.25%-4.5%. Speaking in New York, Waller emphasized that inflation from tariffs is temporary and urged the Fed to prioritize employment, noting slowing private job growth and rising labor market risks. His position, supported by colleague Michelle Bowman and aligning with President Trump’s calls for lower rates, contrasts with other Fed officials like Adriana Kugler and John Williams, who caution against cuts due to potential inflation from tariffs, predicting increases through 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also favors waiting for clearer inflation data, highlighting a deepening divide within the central bank. This debate underscores differing views on balancing inflation control with employment goals amid external pressures and tariff impacts.

yahoo
July 18, 2025
Stocks
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