Vietnam Surprised by Trump Tariff Decision, Seeks Lower Rate

Key Points

  • Vietnam's leadership was surprised by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 20% tariff, as they had anticipated a lower rate in the 10%-15% range.
  • Following the announcement, Vietnam's party chief To Lam instructed negotiators to continue efforts to reduce the tariff rate.
  • The Vietnamese government has limited public discussion of the tariff in state media, with instructions to avoid speculative content until a consensus is reached with the US.
  • Vietnam is balancing relations with the US and China, its largest trading partner, while addressing US demands to prevent transshipment of Chinese goods through Vietnam.
  • Despite the tariff uncertainty, foreign investors view the 20% rate as a favorable deal, with Vietnamese stocks reaching a three-year high.

Summary

Vietnam was taken aback by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 20% tariff on its exports, having expected a rate between 10% and 15%. Following a call with Trump, Vietnam’s party chief To Lam directed negotiators to push for a lower rate, as the higher figure was unexpected. The Vietnamese government has kept public discussion minimal, with state media instructed to avoid speculative content until an agreement is finalized with the US. Vietnam, a major export hub with a significant trade surplus with the US, is navigating complex relations with both Washington and Beijing, its largest trading partner. The US has pressed Vietnam to curb the rerouting of Chinese goods to evade higher tariffs, prompting Hanoi to tighten regulations on origin-of-goods fraud. Despite the uncertainty, foreign investors remain optimistic, with Vietnamese stocks hitting a three-year high, interpreting the tariff as a relatively good deal. Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to strengthen economic ties with China, including plans for a railway link, underscoring its delicate balancing act. Neither side has released detailed plans on how the 20% tariff or a 40% levy on transshipped goods will be enforced, leaving many questions unanswered as Trump considers broader tariffs of 15%-20% on other trading partners.

Josh Wingrove and Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen
July 11, 2025
Stocks
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