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US oil production is set to grow in 2023 and 2024, driven unexpectedly by the Gulf of Mexico rather than shale, as crude prices decline. The Gulf, dubbed the "Gulf of America" by President Trump, will add 300,000 barrels of daily output this year and 250,000 next year, accounting for significant portions of US growth, according to Wood Mackenzie. This marks a revival for the region, previously overshadowed by shale booms and setbacks like the Deepwater Horizon spill. While shale drillers cut back due to low prices, major Gulf projects by Chevron, Shell, and BP are coming online, bolstered by cost-effective innovations like simpler designs and tiebacks to existing platforms. Chevron’s production is set to rise 50% by 2026, while Shell and BP plan significant expansions. Trump’s administration supports this growth through policies and a new National Energy Dominance Council, though global trade tensions and OPEC+ supply increases challenge price stability. Despite technological advances unlocking tough reserves, the Gulf faces limits with no major discoveries since 2017, raising questions about long-term sustainability.
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The US has ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy staff in Baghdad and authorized families of military personnel to leave the region due to escalating tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran has threatened to target US military bases in the Middle East if negotiations collapse and it is attacked, with its Defense Minister warning of significant retaliatory losses for the US. Reports also suggest Israel is preparing for a potential operation against Iran, prompting the Trump administration to advise some Americans to depart. President Trump has expressed dwindling confidence in nuclear talks, while Iran is preparing a new proposal for discussions in Muscat. The heightened tensions have broader implications, with the UK Navy issuing warnings about potential military escalation impacting shipping through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets reacted sharply, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising over 5% amid security concerns. The situation remains fluid, with the US Central Command coordinating with allies to maintain readiness, as geopolitical strife continues to threaten stability in the region.
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Oil prices fell on Thursday, with Brent crude dropping 0.4% to $69.47 a barrel and WTI declining 0.3% to $67.92, reversing earlier gains in Asian trading. The decline follows a surge of over 4% the previous day, driven by heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and U.S. decisions to reposition personnel in the Middle East ahead of nuclear talks with Iran scheduled for Sunday in Oman. President Trump reiterated his stance against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iran insists its nuclear activities are peaceful. Analysts, including Vivek Dhar from Commonwealth Bank Australia, suggest the recent price spike above $70 was excessive, anticipating a pullback but a lingering geopolitical premium until talks clarify outcomes. The U.S. is also partially evacuating its Iraqi embassy and allowing military dependents to leave certain Middle Eastern locations due to security risks. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels last week, surpassing expectations. Market participants are cautious, with some betting on reduced tensions post-talks, though Trump’s skepticism about reaching a deal and Iran’s warnings of retaliation if provoked add uncertainty to the oil market outlook.
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Asia Morning Briefing highlights key trends in crypto and financial markets as Asia starts its Thursday. Ethereum (ETH) trades at $2,770, up 11% this month, outpacing Bitcoin (BTC) due to institutional demand and its DeFi-TradFi bridging role, dominating derivatives trading. BTC, despite volatility, sees strong institutional accumulation. The stablecoin market reached a record $228 billion, with Tron attracting significant inflows, while Ethereum and Solana lose capital. AI agent economies are emerging, with crypto blockchains proposed as infrastructure for interoperable transactions, supported by initiatives from Coinbase and others. Web3 gaming, though leading in dAPPs, faces declining market share and funding due to unengaging gameplay and misplaced focus on tokenomics. Market movements show BTC slipping 2% to test $108.5K support, while ETH surged 5% past $2,800 on $815M ETF inflows. Gold rose nearly 1% on cooling U.S. inflation, and Tokyo stocks opened mixed. Despite macro uncertainties and geopolitical risks, institutional conviction in crypto remains strong, with ETH eyeing $3,000.
