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President Trump's trade policies have significantly altered the landscape of U.S. import taxes, with a recent deal on July 23 imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, up from 1.6% pre-presidency. Markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high, as the rate was lower than the feared 20-25%. Overall, Trump's tariffs have raised the average import tax from 2.5% to 20%, impacting countries like China (34-40%) and generating an estimated $290 billion annually, offsetting much of a $375 billion tax cut. While Wall Street cheers the clarity, as tariffs align closer to initial 10-15% forecasts, economic concerns loom with slowing growth, declining corporate profits, and potential inflation. Trump's approval rating hovers near a second-term low of 45%, though tariff effects remain less felt by the public compared to other controversies. However, these tax hikes on businesses and consumers are real and may soon become more noticeable, potentially shifting public and market sentiment.
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The upcoming July jobs report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to reflect a slowdown in hiring with nonfarm payrolls projected to rise by 105,000, down from June’s 147,000, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.2% from 4.1%. This data comes amid growing investor scrutiny of the US labor market for signs of cooling that might influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Recent figures, including ADP’s report of 104,000 private payroll gains in July and a decline in job openings to 7.44 million in June, underscore a moderating labor market. Despite this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the market as "solid" after maintaining steady rates in July, noting a balance due to reduced labor supply from lower immigration. Analysts like BofA’s Shruti Mishra view the market as moderating rather than deteriorating, while ADP’s Nela Richardson highlights consumer spending as a key health indicator. Additional data shows hiring rates at their lowest since November 2024, yet layoffs remain low, allowing the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach on policy amidst inflation and tariff concerns.
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Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a significant 8% decline from $0.22 to $0.21 between July 31 and August 1, marking one of the steepest daily drops this month. The price fluctuated within a $0.03 range, peaking at $0.23 and bottoming at $0.20, with strong resistance at the upper limit and stabilization near $0.21. Trading volume spiked to 1.25 billion DOGE around midnight, nearly triple the daily average, suggesting intense liquidation and cascading sell orders. Despite the downturn, institutional wallets accumulated 310 million DOGE, and Bit Origin added 40 million to its treasury as part of a $500 million diversification strategy. The broader crypto market faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, with inflation and interest rate concerns dampening sentiment. Technically, repeated tests of $0.21 support and a narrowing price band hint at potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Traders are now monitoring whether DOGE can hold above the $0.20–$0.21 range, alongside macroeconomic signals and further institutional accumulation.
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Y Combinator (YC) has launched applications for its Fall 2025 cohort, spotlighting six startup themes with a strong emphasis on innovation through AI and efficiency. A key focus is on reducing government waste by funding startups that develop large language model (LLM)-powered software to replace costly consulting services, addressing the US government’s $100 billion annual consulting expenditure amid political pressure for cuts. Other themes include creating AI training for blue-collar workers, leveraging video generation as a core software technology, building infrastructure for multi-agent AI systems, reinventing enterprise tools with AI at their core, and betting on the rise of a 10-person, $100 billion company enabled by AI efficiency. YC believes small, agile teams can scale rapidly without the bureaucratic drag of larger firms. The accelerator’s “Request for Startups” signals Silicon Valley’s future direction, with applications closing Monday evening, Pacific time. This initiative reflects broader trends of using technology to solve systemic inefficiencies and reshape industries, from government operations to media and enterprise solutions.
