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President Trump continues to wield tariffs as a powerful policy tool, delaying a July 9 trade deal deadline to August 1 while introducing new, unexpected tariff threats that unsettled markets. These include 20%-40% tariffs on imports from countries like Japan and South Korea, a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods tied to political demands, and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals. The Yale Budget Lab estimates these changes will raise the effective import tax from 15% to 19%, far above the 2.5% when Trump took office. Despite minimal real-world economic impact so far, upcoming corporate earnings and the July 15 inflation report may reveal cost increases in sectors like clothing and electronics, potentially driving inflation from 2.3% to 3.5%-4% by year-end. This prevents the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, fueling Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though his own trade policies are the root cause. Analysts warn markets not to underestimate Trump, as tariffs remain a preferred mechanism to address various issues, often prioritizing leverage over stability. With Trump's ability to adjust tariffs at will to reward allies or punish foes, the ongoing unpredictability suggests future trade deadlines will likely bring more surprises, maintaining a state of economic uncertainty.
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Meta Platforms Inc. is intensifying its pursuit of AI dominance by hiring key researchers Mark Lee and Tom Gunter from Apple Inc. for its Superintelligence Labs team, shortly after recruiting their former boss, Ruoming Pang, with a compensation package exceeding $200 million. This reflects a broader tech industry race for AI talent, with Meta, under CEO Mark Zuckerberg, prioritizing artificial intelligence through massive investments in personnel and infrastructure to rival companies like OpenAI and Google. Meanwhile, Apple’s AI division, the Apple Foundation Models team, faces uncertainty as it considers integrating external models such as ChatGPT or Claude for features like Siri, while struggling to retain staff against Meta’s lucrative offers. Despite Apple’s efforts to offer raises, the disparity in compensation—Meta’s packages often multiples higher—continues to drive talent away. Zuckerberg’s vision includes investing hundreds of billions in computing power to achieve superintelligence, with top hires working closely with him at Meta’s headquarters, underscoring his commitment to building an elite AI team.
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China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao expressed a strong desire to stabilize trade relations with the United States, emphasizing the economic interdependence between the two nations despite recent tensions. Speaking to reporters, Wang urged the U.S. to act as a responsible superpower and highlighted the importance of dialogue, citing productive talks in Geneva and London as evidence that a tariff war is avoidable. With an August 12 deadline looming for a durable tariff agreement, failure to reach a deal could disrupt global supply chains with duties exceeding 100%. Wang also met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who confirmed the resumption of H20 AI chip sales to China, a move tied to negotiations on rare earths, which saw a 32% export increase in June. Despite high U.S. tariffs on China at 53.6%, Wang stressed that forced decoupling is unfeasible due to the irreplaceable nature of traded goods and services. China remains committed to avoiding a trade war but is prepared to defend its interests if necessary, seeking a path toward healthy and sustainable economic ties with the U.S. through continued communication and cooperation.
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Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has made a compelling case for a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, proposing a target rate of 3%, well below the current 4.25%-4.5%. Speaking in New York, Waller emphasized that inflation from tariffs is temporary and urged the Fed to prioritize employment, noting slowing private job growth and rising labor market risks. His position, supported by colleague Michelle Bowman and aligning with President Trump’s calls for lower rates, contrasts with other Fed officials like Adriana Kugler and John Williams, who caution against cuts due to potential inflation from tariffs, predicting increases through 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also favors waiting for clearer inflation data, highlighting a deepening divide within the central bank. This debate underscores differing views on balancing inflation control with employment goals amid external pressures and tariff impacts.
