Key Points
- July Jobs Report Expectations: Economists anticipate nonfarm payrolls to increase by 105,000 in July, a decrease from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.**
- Labor Market Slowing: Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with private payrolls growing by 104,000 in July per ADP, though overall hiring momentum has slowed.**
- Federal Reserve's Stance: The Fed held interest rates steady in July, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the labor market as "solid" despite signs of slowing job creation.**
- Consumer Spending as Key Indicator: ADP's chief economist suggests that consumer spending will be a critical measure of labor market health amidst recalibration to lower hiring levels.**
- Job Openings and Hiring Rates: June data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a decline in job openings to 7.44 million and a hiring rate drop to 3.3%, the lowest since November 2024.**
Summary
The upcoming July jobs report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to reflect a slowdown in hiring with nonfarm payrolls projected to rise by 105,000, down from June’s 147,000, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.2% from 4.1%. This data comes amid growing investor scrutiny of the US labor market for signs of cooling that might influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Recent figures, including ADP’s report of 104,000 private payroll gains in July and a decline in job openings to 7.44 million in June, underscore a moderating labor market. Despite this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the market as "solid" after maintaining steady rates in July, noting a balance due to reduced labor supply from lower immigration. Analysts like BofA’s Shruti Mishra view the market as moderating rather than deteriorating, while ADP’s Nela Richardson highlights consumer spending as a key health indicator. Additional data shows hiring rates at their lowest since November 2024, yet layoffs remain low, allowing the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach on policy amidst inflation and tariff concerns.