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The Federal Reserve's latest policy update reveals a cautious stance on interest rates, maintaining the benchmark range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting since a December cut. The central bank's "dot plot" projects two rate cuts for 2025, unchanged from March, though a split among officials is evident, with seven now expecting no changes compared to four previously. Updated economic forecasts in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) raise concerns, predicting core inflation at 3.1%, unemployment at 4.5%, and GDP growth at just 1.4% for the year, signaling fears of stagflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the growing divide among members, attributing it to differing risk assessments on inflation persistence and labor market weakness during uncertain times. The Fed's approach remains tentative as it navigates policy unknowns, including the Trump administration's trade and tax proposals, while markets anticipate one to two cuts in 2025.
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The stock market in 2025 is soaring to new heights, propelled by megacap giants like Nvidia and Meta, as well as speculative investments in meme stocks such as Palantir and heavily shorted names like Super Micro Computer. Retail investors are a driving force behind this rally, favoring riskier, unprofitable tech and momentum-driven trades over traditional fundamentals, as highlighted by experts like Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab. Data from Goldman Sachs and Bespoke Investment Group shows unprofitable companies and high-beta stocks significantly outperforming the broader market, with nearly 420 Russell 3000 stocks surging over 50% in a short period. New entrants like Circle and CoreWeave have skyrocketed post-IPO, reflecting the speculative appetite. However, this disconnect from fundamentals raises red flags on Wall Street, with warnings of market gamification and potential risks from strategists like Chad Morganlander and Steve Sosnick. While momentum and fear of missing out (FOMO) currently dominate investor behavior, concerns linger that fundamentals will eventually reassert themselves, potentially leading to a market correction. For now, the bullish wave persists, though not without cautionary notes about future volatility.
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Elon Musk has confirmed that his newly launched "America Party" will embrace Bitcoin, declaring fiat currency as "hopeless" in response to a query on X. This announcement, made on July 6, sparked enthusiastic reactions from the crypto community, with leaders like Brandon Turp and Ben Pham praising the move as a potential savior for the nation. Musk's decision to launch the party stems from his dissatisfaction with the U.S. two-party system and a public feud with Donald Trump over legislative issues, despite previously supporting Trump's campaign and leading the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.). While Bitcoin's price surged following the news, reaching $109,627.25 from $108,735.07, questions linger about Tesla resuming Bitcoin payments, which were halted in 2021 due to environmental concerns. Additionally, discussions around stablecoins like Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin with a $159.46 billion market cap, surfaced as a potential means to bolster fiat. Musk's political and financial moves continue to draw significant attention, blending cryptocurrency advocacy with political innovation, though hopes for Dogecoin integration remain unfulfilled among enthusiasts.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $109K, showing modest gains of 0.8% over the past week and 4.5% over the last month, yet it remains in a consolidation phase without breaking past all-time highs. A CryptoQuant report reveals a significant decline in spot demand, with a contraction of -895K BTC in the last 30 days, overshadowing institutional purchases by ETFs and Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR). Institutional buying has notably slowed, with ETF purchases dropping from 86,000 BTC in December to 40,000 recently, and MSTR buys falling from 171,000 to 16,000. This weakening demand is further evidenced by BTC’s nearly empty mempool, indicating low retail interest. SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci suggests the trend of companies adopting BTC as a treasury asset, a key demand driver, may fade, though he remains bullish on BTC overall. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered holds a positive outlook, targeting a $200K price for BTC. Other market movements include Ethereum rallying to $2,558.63 with strong ETF inflows, gold surging 1.91% to $3,336.61 amid a weakening dollar, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipping 0.26% due to tariff uncertainties. The crypto market faces challenges from declining demand, raising questions about potential resistance to BTC’s price if institutional support continues to wane.
