Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Eyes PPI for Post-CPI Guidance on Fed

Key Points

  • After Wednesday’s unexpectedly high consumer price inflation (CPI) figures, all eyes now turn to the produce price report due at 8:30 a.m.
  • Hotter-than-expected data could signal monetary policy remains too loose, potentially delaying or even eliminating Fed rate cuts this year, against President Trump's wishes.
  • Softer inflation data could weaken the dollar and lower treasury yields while helping boost risk-assets.
  • Coinbase (COIN) reports fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes, with expectations high following Robinhood's strong results.
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report, with estimates for core PPI month-over-month at 0.3% and year-over-year at 3.3%.

Summary

Following the unexpected surge in consumer price inflation (CPI) figures, attention shifts to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could influence monetary policy decisions. Analysts anticipate a year-over-year PPI of 3.2% and a month-on-month increase to 0.3%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. If the PPI data comes in hotter than expected, it might suggest that the current monetary policy is too lenient, potentially leading to a delay or cancellation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, contrary to President Trump's expectations. Conversely, softer inflation numbers could lead to a weaker dollar and lower treasury yields, benefiting risk assets. The financial markets have shown volatility, with treasury yields and the Dollar Index experiencing fluctuations. Despite initial market jitters, major asset classes like bitcoin, U.S. equities, and gold managed to recover. Additionally, Coinbase is set to announce its earnings, which could impact the cryptocurrency market, especially after Robinhood's positive earnings report.

Omkar Godbole
February 13, 2025
Crypto
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