Crypto Bulls Brace for Bank of Japan's Rate Hike That Could Derail Momentum

Key Points

  • Investors are focused on President Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, which could impact bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) might hike rates on Jan. 24, with a 90% market expectation, potentially causing market turbulence.
  • Previous BoJ rate hikes have led to significant market reactions, including a bitcoin price drop to $49,000.
  • Japan's inflation report on Jan. 23 could influence the BoJ's decision, with current inflation at 2.9% year-over-year.
  • The DXY index, measuring the U.S. dollar's value, is at its highest since November 2022, potentially affecting global markets.

Summary

The financial markets are currently fixated on two significant events: President Trump's inauguration on January 20, which could serve as a catalyst for bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, and a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on January 24. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of this rate hike, which could lead to market volatility similar to previous reactions where bitcoin prices plummeted. The BoJ has been adjusting its negative interest rate policy, with rates moving from -0.1% to 0.25% in 2024, and the upcoming inflation report on January 23 might further influence their decision. With inflation at 2.9%, the highest since August, there's a risk of another Yen carry trade unwind, potentially destabilizing markets. Meanwhile, the DXY index, which tracks the U.S. dollar's strength, has surged to its highest level since November 2022, mirroring trends seen during Trump's first term, which could have broader implications for global financial markets.

coindesk
January 16, 2025
Crypto
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