Consumer price report Wednesday expected to show inflation isn’t going away

Key Points

  • Inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with Bank of America predicting no rate cuts for the rest of the year.
  • January's CPI is forecasted to show a slight increase, with core inflation expected at 3.1% annually, driven by rises in car prices, auto insurance, and communications.
  • Despite some disinflation expected from key categories, President Trump's tariffs could counteract this trend, potentially pushing inflation higher.
  • Recent surveys show a softening in inflation expectations among consumers and businesses, yet the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates.

Summary

The January consumer price index (CPI) report is anticipated to reflect ongoing challenges in managing inflation, with expectations that it will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Bank of America's economists predict no rate cuts for the foreseeable future, citing strong economic activity and a stable labor market. The CPI is expected to show a slight monthly increase, with core inflation projected at 3.1% annually, influenced by rising car prices, auto insurance, and communications costs. Despite some disinflationary pressures from sectors like housing and autos, President Trump's tariffs could counteract these effects, potentially pushing inflation higher. Recent surveys indicate a softening in inflation expectations among consumers and businesses, yet the Federal Reserve, led by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remains cautious about further rate adjustments, emphasizing the need for actual low inflation data before considering any policy changes.

cnbc
February 11, 2025
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