Coffee is in a 'perfect price storm' — and it's finally starting to hit your wallet

Key Points

  • Coffee futures (KC=F) have surged over 30% year to date, nearing all-time highs.
  • Consumer prices for roasted coffee rose 2.5% in January, while instant coffee increased by 7.1%.
  • Climate issues in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam have led to higher prices.
  • Companies like illycaffè and Keurig Dr Pepper are considering price hikes due to ongoing coffee inflation.

Summary

Coffee prices are experiencing significant increases, with futures up over 30% year to date, hovering near all-time highs. This surge is now affecting consumer prices, as evidenced by the January Consumer Price Index report which showed a 2.5% increase in roasted coffee prices and a 7.1% jump in instant coffee prices. The primary drivers behind these price hikes are climate-related issues in key coffee-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam. Brazil, in particular, faced its hottest year on record in 2024, leading to reduced coffee production due to forest fires and poor weather conditions. Andrea Illy of illycaffè highlighted the inevitability of price increases due to these factors, with no clear end in sight for the price surge. Other companies, including Keurig Dr Pepper, are also contemplating price adjustments to offset the rising costs. However, not all are equally affected; Starbucks, for instance, has managed to mitigate the impact through strategic purchasing and hedging. The situation is particularly acute for instant coffee, where lower base prices allow for easier price adjustments without causing significant consumer backlash.

yahoo
February 13, 2025
Stocks
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