Chinese investments in the U.S. have plummeted since Trump’s first term. The trend is unlikely to reverse

Key Points

  • Chinese investments in the U.S. have significantly declined since Trump's first term, with only $860 million invested in the first half of 2024.
  • Trump's policies and rhetoric suggest a continued tough stance on Chinese investments, focusing on tariffs and ideological differences.
  • Regulatory policies in both the U.S. and China have tightened, leading to a shift from large acquisitions to smaller joint ventures and greenfield investments.
  • Despite potential incentives or coercion through tariffs, large-scale Chinese investments are unlikely to recover to their peak levels in the near future.

Summary

Since Donald Trump's first term, Chinese investments in the U.S. have seen a sharp decline, with only $860 million invested in the first half of 2024 compared to $46.86 billion in 2017. Trump's return to the White House is expected to continue this trend, with his administration likely to maintain a hardline stance against Chinese investments. His threats of additional tariffs and the ideological mismatch between the U.S. and China, as highlighted by economist Rafiq Dossani, suggest that encouraging Chinese companies to invest in the U.S. is not a priority. Regulatory measures from both countries have further restricted investment flows, pushing Chinese companies towards smaller, less conspicuous joint ventures or greenfield projects. Despite potential incentives or coercive measures like tariffs, experts like Danielle Goh from Rhodium Group and Derek Scissors from the American Enterprise Institute believe that significant Chinese investments are not expected to rebound soon due to the long-term nature of such investments and the unpredictability of Trump's policies.

cnbc
January 20, 2025
Stocks
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