Bonds Rally as New Inflation Data Repair Damage Inflicted by CPI

Key Points

  • Treasuries rallied after a report on producer prices suggested that the previous day's selloff due to hot consumer inflation data was overdone.
  • The market saw a relief rally, with yields on two-year Treasury notes dropping nearly 10 basis points, erasing most of the previous day's surge.
  • The PPI data hinted at a more benign consumer inflation gauge, expected to be released later in the month, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions.
  • Despite a less than expected demand for the 30-year bond auction, Treasuries retained most of their gains.
  • Market reactions were also influenced by ongoing threats of tariffs from the Trump administration, although the immediate impact was deferred.

Summary

The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant rally following a report on producer prices which suggested that the previous day's selloff, triggered by unexpectedly high consumer inflation data, might have been an overreaction. This led to a decrease in yields by nearly 10 basis points, particularly in two-year Treasury notes, reversing much of the previous day's increase. Analysts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs indicated that the producer price index (PPI) hinted at a more moderate consumer inflation rate, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions. Despite a lukewarm response to the 30-year bond auction, Treasuries held onto most of their gains. The market's movements were also influenced by the Trump administration's ongoing threats of imposing tariffs, although the immediate implementation was delayed. This scenario led to a recalibration of expectations regarding inflation and potential Federal Reserve actions, with some predicting a rate cut as early as May, while others anticipated steady rates through the year-end.

yahoo
February 13, 2025
Stocks
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