Bitcoin’s Risk-Adjusted Returns Took a Hit in February

Key Points

  • Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns have weakened significantly in February 2025, according to Ecoinometrics.
  • Despite matching gold's total returns over the past year, Bitcoin's behavior is more akin to a major stock index when adjusted for risk.
  • Bitcoin has experienced modest declines in 2025 amidst trade war threats and geopolitical tensions, while gold has seen an 11% increase year-to-date.
  • The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is currently negative, suggesting Bitcoin might be at a bottom, as observed in previous periods.

Summary

Bitcoin's performance in February 2025 has been underwhelming, with its risk-adjusted returns significantly declining, as reported by Ecoinometrics. Although Bitcoin has matched gold's total returns over the past year, its behavior when adjusted for risk more closely resembles that of a major stock index rather than a safe-haven asset like gold. Amidst trade war threats, geopolitical tensions, and confusion from President Trump regarding government plans on cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has seen modest declines so far in 2025, while gold has surged by over 11% year-to-date. Analyst James Van Straten from CoinDesk notes that the current negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold often signals that Bitcoin is at a bottom, a pattern observed in previous years. This shift might affect Bitcoin's attractiveness to institutional investors who seek assets with favorable risk-reward profiles, challenging its narrative as "digital gold" in the short term.

coindesk
March 5, 2025
Crypto
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