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The article discusses the current phase of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, focusing on the behavior of different cohorts of Bitcoin holders. Long-term holders, who typically hold for three to five years, have entered a new accumulation phase, significantly increasing their holdings since mid-February. This group's behavior helps stabilize the market by absorbing sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales, especially those with over 1,000 BTC, are also in an accumulation mode, with their activity suggesting a potential for future price support. On the other hand, short-term holders, influenced heavily by market sentiment, are currently holding onto their Bitcoin despite a challenging economic backdrop. However, their behavior could shift towards selling if Bitcoin's price sees further declines. The article also touches on how market sentiment, as reflected by the Fear & Greed Index, cycles through phases of fear and greed, influencing market movements. This cyclical behavior often becomes self-fulfilling as traders act on expected patterns, reinforcing Bitcoin's market cycles.
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The oil market has recently transitioned from a state of stagnation to one of extreme volatility, triggered by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase output. These events led to a significant drop in US crude futures and a spike in market volatility. However, the rapid and unpredictable changes in market conditions have made it difficult for traders to capitalize on this volatility. George Cultraro from Bank of America Corp. noted the challenge in maintaining a medium-term view due to the fluctuating nature of tariffs. The market's liquidity has been threatened as investors withdraw, with a notable $2 billion net outflow reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co. This has led to a decrease in trading volumes and open interest in WTI. In response, traders are increasingly turning to spread positions to mitigate risk, while oil consumers are locking in costs through hedging to avoid the market's volatility. The situation is further complicated by the influence of options markets and the positioning of trend-following funds, which have seen dramatic shifts in their strategies following the market's recent turmoil.
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The recent announcement of sweeping tariffs by the Trump administration has reignited fears of a recession, potentially leading to a significant reduction in advertising expenditures across the US media landscape. Analysts from MoffettNathanson estimate that a recession could result in a $45 billion shortfall in ad spending, with digital platforms facing a $29 billion cut and traditional TV losing $12 billion. This downturn could accelerate the decline of traditional television advertising, which has already been facing secular headwinds. The advertising industry, which saw a rebound in 2024 due to political spending and a post-pandemic digital boom, now faces a more bearish outlook due to the uncertainty caused by these tariffs. Companies heavily reliant on ad revenue like Meta, Snap, and The Trade Desk are expected to be hit hardest, with potential stock declines of 30% or more. Conversely, firms like Netflix and Alphabet, with less dependence on advertising, are better equipped to weather the economic storm. The impact could extend to traditional media giants like Disney and Fox, potentially reversing recent earnings gains.
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US Senator Elizabeth Warren has expressed concerns over the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump, warning that such an action could lead to a financial market crash. During her appearance on CNBC, Warren emphasized that the President lacks the legal authority to remove Powell, and doing so would compromise the integrity of the US financial system. She highlighted the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political pressures, stating that any interference could reduce the US to the level of a "two-bit dictatorship." President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, particularly regarding the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates, which he believes could stimulate economic growth and reverse market downturns influenced by trade wars and macroeconomic issues. This ongoing feud has led to speculation and calls from other politicians like Senator Rick Scott for a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership to better align with American interests.
