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The article discusses a concerning trend in Bitcoin's market dynamics as indicated by the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which has recently flipped to a bearish signal. This metric, which tracks the flow of Bitcoin between derivative and spot exchanges, traditionally signals the beginning of a bearish phase when Bitcoin moves from derivative to spot exchanges. This shift suggests that investors are closing long positions and reducing their risk exposure, potentially marking the start of a downturn in Bitcoin's price. Despite this, the broader sentiment among market observers remains cautiously optimistic, with many not expecting the current bull run to end soon. However, the article notes that Bitcoin's price cycles have historically been accompanied by new IFP peaks, which are not currently observed, hinting at a possible deviation from past patterns. The analysis also touches on the broader economic context, mentioning that recent inflation reports have influenced the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially affecting risk-asset conditions in the future.
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China has accused the United States of using tariffs as a weapon to coerce other nations into reducing trade with Beijing, vowing to retaliate against any country that makes deals against its interests. The US has imposed tariffs on all trading partners under the guise of "equivalence" and is pushing for "reciprocal tariffs" negotiations. This has led to a significant drop in US stocks as companies grapple with the uncertainty of tariff policies. Despite the tensions, China has expressed a willingness to engage in trade talks with the US, although the White House has clarified that China now faces tariffs of up to 245% on imports to the US. The ongoing trade war has also impacted various sectors, with the airfreight industry potentially losing $22 billion in revenue due to tariffs and the possible closure of the de minimis exemption. Additionally, the situation has led to increased costs for US consumers, with examples like the price hike of rice crackers in Chinatown, New York City, reflecting the broader economic impact of these trade policies.
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US stocks experienced a significant downturn on Monday as President Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking concerns about the central bank's independence. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw substantial declines, with the Dow dropping nearly 1,000 points. Trump's focus on lowering interest rates and his threats to remove Powell have added to market volatility, especially as investors navigate the shifting landscape of his tariff policies. The US dollar weakened to its lowest level since 2022, while gold and bitcoin reached new highs, reflecting investor uncertainty. Amidst this backdrop, the earnings season continues with key reports from Tesla and Alphabet this week, which could provide insights into how companies are coping with the current economic environment. The market's reaction to these earnings will be closely watched to gauge whether stocks have bottomed out or if further declines are expected.
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Donald Trump's 2024 campaign promise to tackle inflation played a significant role in his election, as voters were weary of the high prices during the Biden administration. However, once in office in 2025, Trump's policies have taken a sharp turn towards promoting inflation. He has introduced massive import tariffs, which have raised the effective tariff rate on imports from 2.5% to around 27%, directly increasing the cost of numerous consumer goods. This shift in policy has led to a significant change in economic forecasts, with inflation now expected to rise to 3.4% by the end of the year, up from previous estimates. The Federal Reserve, concerned about these inflationary pressures, has not cut interest rates as anticipated, and the likelihood of rate cuts has significantly decreased. Trump's actions are not only tolerating inflation but actively encouraging it, defying economic advice and historical lessons from past administrations. His approval ratings are beginning to reflect public discontent, with his economic handling receiving the lowest marks in recent polls, mirroring the public's growing concern over rising prices and economic stability.
