Bitcoin bull run comeback? Whale exchange inflow metric nears 5-year high

Key Points

• China accused the US of weaponizing tariffs to pressure other countries into cutting trade with Beijing.
• China vowed to retaliate against countries that make deals against its interests.
• US stocks sank as companies seek clarity on tariff policy.
• China has shown openness to trade talks with the US, contingent on specific conditions.
• The airfreight industry could lose $22 billion in revenue if current US tariff policies continue.

Summary

China has accused the United States of using tariffs as a weapon to coerce other nations into reducing trade with Beijing, vowing to retaliate against any country that makes deals against its interests. The US has imposed tariffs on all trading partners under the guise of "equivalence" and is pushing for "reciprocal tariffs" negotiations. This has led to a significant drop in US stocks as companies grapple with the uncertainty of tariff policies. Despite the tensions, China has expressed a willingness to engage in trade talks with the US, although the White House has clarified that China now faces tariffs of up to 245% on imports to the US. The ongoing trade war has also impacted various sectors, with the airfreight industry potentially losing $22 billion in revenue due to tariffs and the possible closure of the de minimis exemption. Additionally, the situation has led to increased costs for US consumers, with examples like the price hike of rice crackers in Chinatown, New York City, reflecting the broader economic impact of these trade policies.

Key Points

• US stocks tanked on Monday due to President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about Fed independence.
• The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experienced significant declines, with the Dow dropping nearly 1,000 points.
• Investors are grappling with Trump's threats to remove Powell and his focus on lowering interest rates amidst tariff policy shifts.
• The US dollar weakened to its lowest level since 2022, while gold and bitcoin reached new highs.
• Earnings season continues with Tesla and Alphabet reporting this week, amidst a broader market sell-off.

Summary

US stocks experienced a significant downturn on Monday as President Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking concerns about the central bank's independence. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw substantial declines, with the Dow dropping nearly 1,000 points. Trump's focus on lowering interest rates and his threats to remove Powell have added to market volatility, especially as investors navigate the shifting landscape of his tariff policies. The US dollar weakened to its lowest level since 2022, while gold and bitcoin reached new highs, reflecting investor uncertainty. Amidst this backdrop, the earnings season continues with key reports from Tesla and Alphabet this week, which could provide insights into how companies are coping with the current economic environment. The market's reaction to these earnings will be closely watched to gauge whether stocks have bottomed out or if further declines are expected.

Key Points

• Trump's 2024 campaign promise to combat inflation was a key factor in his election, but his policies as president in 2025 are actively promoting inflation.
• Trump has imposed massive import tariffs, significantly increasing the cost of everyday products and pushing inflation forecasts higher.
• The Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut interest rates due to concerns over Trump's tariffs causing reflation, contrary to earlier expectations of rate cuts.
• Trump's economic policies are causing a decline in his approval ratings, with public sentiment turning negative as inflation expectations rise.

Summary

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign promise to tackle inflation played a significant role in his election, as voters were weary of the high prices during the Biden administration. However, once in office in 2025, Trump's policies have taken a sharp turn towards promoting inflation. He has introduced massive import tariffs, which have raised the effective tariff rate on imports from 2.5% to around 27%, directly increasing the cost of numerous consumer goods. This shift in policy has led to a significant change in economic forecasts, with inflation now expected to rise to 3.4% by the end of the year, up from previous estimates. The Federal Reserve, concerned about these inflationary pressures, has not cut interest rates as anticipated, and the likelihood of rate cuts has significantly decreased. Trump's actions are not only tolerating inflation but actively encouraging it, defying economic advice and historical lessons from past administrations. His approval ratings are beginning to reflect public discontent, with his economic handling receiving the lowest marks in recent polls, mirroring the public's growing concern over rising prices and economic stability.