Bitcoin Bull Market Is Far From Over, Suggests Historical BTC Trend Tied to 200-Week Average

Key Points

  • Bitcoin's 200-week SMA at $44,200, significantly below the previous bull market peak of $69,000.
  • Historical trends suggest bull markets end when the 200-week SMA reaches previous bull run highs.
  • Current market conditions and options pricing indicate a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Summary

The article discusses the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to continue its upward trend, supported by historical trends and current market indicators. The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin's price, which helps to smooth out short-term fluctuations, is currently at $44,200, well below the peak of $69,000 from the last bull market in November 2021. Historical data suggests that bull markets typically conclude when the 200-week SMA reaches the highs of the previous bull run. Given this, if past patterns hold, Bitcoin's price, currently ranging between $90,000 and $110,000, is expected to resolve bullishly. Additionally, the pricing of options on Deribit, where call options are more expensive than put options, further supports a bullish market sentiment. The concentration of open interest in call options at strikes above the current market price, particularly at $120,000, reflects strong expectations for Bitcoin's price to rise.

coindesk
February 14, 2025
Crypto
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