Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged in a surprise move, warns GDP growth ‘highly likely’ to miss forecasts

Key Points

  • South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark policy rate at 3%, contrary to expectations of a rate cut.
  • The decision was influenced by intensified downside risks to economic growth and increased volatility in exchange rates due to political risks.
  • The BOK noted that while inflation had stabilized, economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are likely to be missed.
  • Political turmoil, including the arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol, adds to the uncertainty affecting economic policies.

Summary

On December 28, 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) decided to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 3%, surprising economists who anticipated a 25-basis-point cut. This decision was made amidst a backdrop of stabilized inflation and reduced household debt growth, but with significant concerns over economic growth due to heightened political risks and increased exchange rate volatility. The BOK's statement highlighted that South Korea's GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are likely to be missed, with export growth expected to slow and domestic demand recovery lagging. The political situation, including the unprecedented arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol, has contributed to the economic uncertainty. Despite some sectors like semiconductors showing strength, the overall economy struggles, and the BOK is cautious about cutting rates too quickly to prevent a rebound in household debt. The decision reflects a delicate balance between fostering economic growth and managing currency depreciation, with the South Korean won showing a slight strengthening post-decision.

cnbc
January 16, 2025
Stocks
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