Bank of England’s Bailey says UK can’t avoid U.S. tariff impact — even if it’s not in the direct firing line

Key Points

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey discusses the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and inflation.
  • Bailey notes that while the U.K. does not have a significant trade imbalance with the U.S., tariffs could still affect the U.K. indirectly.
  • The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, with expectations of further cuts as disinflation progresses.
  • The BOE halved its growth expectation for the U.K. for 2025, reflecting concerns about economic stagnation.

Summary

In a recent press conference, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey addressed the potential implications of U.S. tariffs on the global economy, emphasizing that even if the U.K. isn't directly targeted, the effects would still be felt. Bailey highlighted the potential for economic fragmentation due to these tariffs, which could hinder global growth, although the impact on inflation remains uncertain due to various international responses. Despite the U.S. being the U.K.'s largest trading partner, the trade balance between the two is nearly even, reducing the direct impact of tariffs. Concurrently, the Bank of England decided to lower its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, with a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee in favor. Bailey described this move as "careful" and "gradual," indicating a cautious approach to managing inflation and economic growth. The BOE also significantly reduced its growth forecast for the U.K. for 2025, signaling concerns about economic stagnation amidst recent flatlining GDP figures.

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February 6, 2025
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