As the U.S. dollar soars, here are Europe’s biggest winners and losers

Key Points

  • The strengthening of the U.S. dollar could both benefit and hurt Europe, with European currencies at multi-year lows.
  • Analysts predict further weakening of the euro and sterling in 2025 due to economic uncertainty and potential trade wars under President-elect Donald Trump.
  • The U.S. dollar index hit its highest level in over two years, following a strong U.S. jobs report.
  • European currencies like the euro and British pound are expected to struggle, with forecasts suggesting no significant recovery in the near term.
  • Norway might benefit from a strong dollar due to its oil exports and significant exposure to dollar-denominated assets.

Summary

The recent surge in the value of the U.S. dollar, reaching its highest level in over two years, has significant implications for Europe. Analysts anticipate that the euro and British pound will continue to weaken in 2025, influenced by economic uncertainty and potential trade wars under President-elect Donald Trump. The U.S. dollar index's rise was spurred by a robust U.S. jobs report, pushing European currencies to multi-year lows. Market analysts like Bartosz Sawicki from Conotoxia predict a volatile but strong dollar in the short term, with potential weakening in the longer term due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, this might not necessarily benefit European currencies, which could face challenges in attracting capital inflows. Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos expressed bearish views on the euro and sterling, citing risks like new tariffs from Trump. Conversely, the Swiss franc is seen as a potential winner due to less aggressive intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The strengthening dollar could lead to higher energy import costs for countries like the U.K. and Germany, potentially exacerbating inflation and economic pressures, while Norway might see benefits from its oil exports and dollar-denominated assets.

cnbc
January 14, 2025
Stocks
Read article

Related news