Alphabet stock could fall as much as 25% in 'black swan event' if judge orders Google Chrome divestiture

Key Points

  • Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stock could decline by 15% to 25% if US District Judge Amit Mehta mandates the sale of Google's Chrome browser, according to Barclays analysts.
  • Google lost a significant antitrust trial in August 2024, with Judge Mehta ruling that the company monopolized the search engine market, particularly in general search and search text ads.
  • The Department of Justice has proposed remedies including divesting Chrome, sharing search data with competitors, and banning exclusivity agreements that make Google the default search engine on devices and browsers.
  • Barclays analyst Ross Sandler noted a low but increased probability of Chrome divestiture, which could severely impact Google, as Chrome accounts for 35% of its search revenue and has 4 billion users.
  • A potential Chrome sale could also lead to a 30% reduction in Alphabet’s earnings per share, with a decision on remedies expected in August 2024.

Summary

Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) faces a potential stock drop of 15% to 25% if US District Judge Amit Mehta orders the divestiture of its Chrome browser, as warned by Barclays analysts. This follows Google's loss in a landmark antitrust trial in August 2024, where it was found guilty of monopolizing the search engine market. The Department of Justice has proposed severe remedies, including selling Chrome, sharing search data with rivals, and ending exclusivity deals that position Google as the default search engine on devices. Barclays analyst Ross Sandler highlighted that Chrome, with 4 billion users, contributes 35% of Google’s search revenue, making its potential sale a significant blow, possibly cutting Alphabet’s earnings per share by 30%. While the likelihood of divestiture remains low, it has risen after recent closing arguments. Judge Mehta’s remedy decision is anticipated in August, and Google plans to appeal. Separately, Alphabet agreed to a $500 million settlement with shareholders over antitrust compliance issues. Alphabet’s stock fell 1.5% on Monday and is down 10.6% year to date, reflecting investor concerns over these legal challenges.

yahoo
June 3, 2025
Stocks
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