10-year Treasury yield pulls back aggressively after core inflation is light in December

Key Points

  • The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by around 10 basis points to 4.69% after key inflation data was released.
  • Core inflation slowed to 3.2% annually in December, slightly under expectations, contributing to the decline in bond yields.
  • The producer price index showed a less than expected rise in wholesale prices, easing inflation concerns but not changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Summary

The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a significant drop of about 10 basis points to 4.69% on Wednesday morning following the release of key inflation data. This decline was part of a broader retreat from a 14-month high, influenced by a lower-than-expected core inflation rate of 3.2% for December, which was slightly below the anticipated 3.3%. The core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis, also underperforming expectations. Despite a higher-than-expected monthly rise in the non-core index, the annual rate aligned with forecasts at 2.9%. This data, coupled with a recent report showing a less than expected increase in wholesale prices, has alleviated some investor concerns about inflation reacceleration. However, these figures are not expected to prompt an immediate change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy at the upcoming meeting. Analysts suggest that while the data supports the notion that the Fed's rate cutting cycle might not be over, more robust inflation data is needed for further monetary policy easing.

cnbc
January 15, 2025
Stocks
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