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Ahead of India’s February 2026 Union Budget, tax authorities and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have expressed significant concerns over cryptocurrencies, as reported on January 8 by local media. Officials briefed the parliamentary finance committee on the risks of virtual digital assets, emphasizing challenges in tracking transactions due to their borderless nature and pseudonymous features. This undermines regulatory oversight and tax enforcement, particularly with decentralized platforms and offshore exchanges. The Finance Ministry aims to tighten control, with the Financial Intelligence Unit and Income Tax Department aligning efforts to probe crypto-related laundering and irregularities like insider trading. India’s harsh crypto tax regime, including a 30% flat tax and 1% TDS, remains one of the highest globally, with penalties up to 70% for undisclosed gains under retrospective audits. Despite this, exchanges like Coinbase eye operations due to demand. Tax authorities are also deploying AI and global data-sharing to verify tax filings, targeting discrepancies over ₹1 lac. Meanwhile, the government discourages decentralized crypto adoption through heavy taxation, focusing instead on an RBI-backed digital currency, as stated by Union Minister Piyush Goyal.
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The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a notable downturn, with the total market cap falling by $97 billion to $3.08 trillion in just 24 hours, driven by profit-taking after recent gains. Bitcoin, a market leader, dropped to $90,949 after failing to maintain support at $93,471, risking further declines to $90,000 or lower. Story (IP) emerged as the weakest performer, declining 7.7% to $1.97, with critical support at $1.87. Meanwhile, institutional interest persists, as Morgan Stanley filed for spot Ethereum ETFs with staking rewards, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong advocated for stablecoin policies amid regulatory pushback. Despite the current bearish sentiment, recovery remains possible if key support levels are reclaimed—Bitcoin at $91,511 and the total market cap at $3.09 trillion—potentially paving the way for renewed bullish momentum. However, sustained selling pressure could deepen short-term volatility across the market.
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Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on Thursday, cooling off from an early-January rebound with a 2% drop over 24 hours, though it retains a 3% weekly gain. Ether also declined 3% daily but is up 6% for the week, while XRP lost 4.5% in a day (still up 17% weekly) and Dogecoin led with a 22% weekly surge, per CoinGecko data. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows of over $486 million, marking consecutive daily losses for the first time this year. Meanwhile, broader market dynamics, including a rally in global bonds and declining U.S. 10-year yields to 4.14%, bolster expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which typically favor risk assets like crypto. Weak economic data, such as a December private-sector payroll increase of 41,000 against a forecast of 50,000, further fuels these bets. Analysts at B2BINPAY highlight macroeconomics as a key driver, noting crypto’s reliance on bitcoin sentiment. Despite supportive tailwinds like improving liquidity and a steadier policy outlook, Thursday’s pullback signals caution among traders, with crypto’s rebound vulnerable to shifts in traditional markets or bitcoin dominance.
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Bitcoin’s strong uptrend at the start of 2026 has decelerated, resulting in a $243 million net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, despite BlackRock’s IBIT gaining $228 million in inflows. Significant redemptions from Fidelity’s FBTC (-$312 million) and Grayscale’s GBTC (-$83 million) contributed to the mixed flows. Bitcoin’s price fell 1.7% to just over $92,000 after peaking above $94,000, yet prediction markets remain bullish, assigning a 76% chance of hitting $100,000 next. Analysts, including Sergey Kravtsov of Papaya Finance and Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO, consider the outflows a temporary tactical repositioning rather than a structural shift, citing normalization after strong early-year inflows and eased tax-loss selling pressure from late 2025. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw positive inflows of $114.74 million and $19.12 million, respectively, indicating selective market strength. Digital Asset Trust inflows have moderated recently, reflecting caution but not disengagement. With macro conditions like potential rate cuts remaining supportive and crypto infrastructure more mature than in past cycles, analysts view this as a consolidation phase before further growth, though a decisive move may depend on renewed liquidity and investor participation.
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In this edition of Morning Minute by Tyler Warner, the spotlight is on Morgan Stanley's groundbreaking move to file for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs with the SEC, marking a significant step for a major Wall Street bank into regulated crypto products. This comes amid heightened demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $697M in net inflows on Monday, the largest since October, pushing the 2026 two-day total to $1.16B. The filings reflect growing institutional interest and validation of crypto as a mainstream asset, with ETFs serving as a key entry point for traditional investors. Meanwhile, crypto majors faced their first 2026 decline, with Bitcoin dropping 2% to $92,000, alongside dips in Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Other market updates include mixed performances in meme coins and NFTs, with notable spikes in Clone X (+250%) following Nike’s sale of RTFKT. On the legislative front, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee scheduled a crucial vote on a crypto market-structure bill for next week, despite unresolved issues. Additional highlights include Hyperliquid teasing a potential airdrop, Ethereum hitting record transaction highs, and various token and protocol developments. Warner notes that while institutional inflows bolster the crypto market's foundation, price surges are not guaranteed, yet the trend suggests a strengthening "supercycle" thesis.
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Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer at Miller Value Partners, expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future in a recent CNBC interview, predicting it will exceed its fall 2025 peak. He attributes this potential breakout to a stronger market foundation, supported by friendlier policy and corporate attitudes toward digital assets. Miller dismissed concerns about Venezuela’s impact on crypto prices, focusing instead on broader economic trends like disinflation, which he sees as making Bitcoin an attractive long-term asset. He also noted a positive shift in regulatory sentiment and mainstream blockchain adoption as game-changers for investors. Despite a 6% dip in 2025, which he considers insignificant given Bitcoin’s historical volatility, Miller believes the asset is poised for a significant rally. Additionally, he highlighted Strategy, a company leveraging capital markets for Bitcoin exposure, as an appealing investment due to its recent valuation drop and potential for outsized gains in a bullish crypto market. His perspective urges investors to focus on macro trends and Bitcoin’s long-term volatility rather than short-term fluctuations.
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In 2025, crypto businesses shattered fundraising expectations by securing over $25 billion, far exceeding the anticipated $18 billion, with the top 10 raises contributing over $10 billion, according to DefiLlama data. Leading the pack, Binance and Polymarket each raised $2 billion, while Circle and Bullish garnered $1.1 billion each, emphasizing stablecoins and regulated trading. This surge reflects a growing convergence between crypto and traditional finance, as major institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs invest alongside tech firms like Paradigm. Charles Chong of BlockSpaceForce noted that blockchain will increasingly operate in the background, simplifying user experience while enhancing settlement and custody. Stablecoins and tokenized assets are poised for growth, solving critical issues for banks and corporations. Other notable raises include Kalshi ($1 billion) for prediction markets, Figure ($788 million) for asset tokenization, and Kraken ($600 million) ahead of a 2026 IPO. This trend underscores investor appetite for innovative, high-risk protocols and infrastructure bridging DeFi and traditional finance.
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In 2025, Bitcoin achieved unprecedented heights, peaking at $126,000 in October, despite a turbulent year with prices dipping to $76,000 amid U.S. trade wars under President Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency gained significant institutional support, with Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve of 200,000 BTC, valued at $18.1 billion, signaling a policy shift from selling seized assets to securing them. Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 57.6% of the $3 trillion crypto market, while 71 U.S. companies amassed over 961,000 BTC, though many faced stock volatility. Wall Street saw a surge in Bitcoin-buying firms, but hype faded, raising concerns about forced sales. Meanwhile, privacy issues emerged with the prosecution of Samourai Wallet developers and debates over Bitcoin Core updates allowing larger non-payment data, sparking concerns over network misuse versus censorship risks. Trump's administration and state-level initiatives, alongside global interest from countries like Brazil, underscored Bitcoin's evolving status as a reserve asset akin to gold, though challenges around privacy, regulation, and market stability persisted.
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Bitcoin recently hit an eight-day high of $90,353 before pulling back to just under $90,000, marking a 2.2% daily increase. However, on-chain data suggests this rally, driven by speculative futures trading rather than genuine spot market demand, may not be sustainable. Indicators like the negative Coinbase premium and net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight a lack of buying interest from key U.S. investors. While Digital Asset Trusts saw a significant $2.23 billion in net inflows during December 15-21, fueled by corporate treasury purchases of Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum, this has not translated into broader market momentum. Analysts note Bitcoin is stuck in a consolidation range between $85,000 and $95,000, with no clear trend expected until mid-January or post-holiday liquidity returns. Prediction markets and experts remain cautious, with some forecasting a contained trading range through the holidays and others warning of vulnerability due to year-end liquidity drying up and persistent selling pressure above $90,000.
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Tether, traditionally a backend stablecoin issuer, is pivoting towards a consumer-facing role with plans for a self-custodial mobile crypto wallet, as announced by CEO Paolo Ardoino on December 20. The wallet, detailed in a recruitment posting for a Lead Software Engineer, will support only four assets—Bitcoin (BTC) via Lightning Network, Tether (USDT), gold-pegged XAUT, and the new US-compliant stablecoin USAT—focusing on payments and store-of-value rather than speculative DeFi tokens. Powered by proprietary technologies like the Wallet Development Kit (WDK) for non-custodial architecture and QVAC, a local AI platform, the wallet aims to offer privacy-focused, on-device processing for advanced financial tasks. This avoids the privacy risks of cloud-based systems typical of Big Tech. The initiative, alongside the recent PearPass peer-to-peer password manager launch, underscores Tether’s vertical integration strategy, controlling the wallet interface, stablecoins, security via PearPass, and AI via QVAC. This reduces reliance on third-party platforms, enhancing operational autonomy and positioning Tether as a tech giant in the crypto space.
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Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, a layer-2 payments solution, has achieved a new all-time high in capacity, exceeding 5,600 BTC, as reported by Bitcoin Visuals and Amboss. This milestone, reached after a year of decline, reflects a rebound in November and December, driven by increased Bitcoin commitments to payment channels for faster, cheaper transactions. However, this growth is not matched by broader user adoption, with node counts dropping to around 14,940 from a peak of over 20,700, and channel numbers also declining. The surge is largely fueled by institutional players and major exchanges like Binance and OKX, rather than individual users. Additionally, ecosystem developments, such as Tether’s $8 million investment in Lightning startup Speed for stablecoin integration and Lightning Labs’ Taproot Assets upgrade for multi-asset support, signal growing interest. Despite these advancements, the network’s capitalization is increasing without a corresponding rise in grassroots participation, highlighting a gap between capacity and widespread usage.
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Solana's on-chain lending sector has demonstrated remarkable growth, reaching a total value locked (TVL) of $4.8 billion by December 2025, a 33% increase from the prior year's $2.7 billion, despite significant cryptocurrency market volatility. This expansion, driven by steady borrowing demand and collateral deposits, contrasts with price declines in SOL and other major assets. Kamino Finance stands out as the leading lending platform, managing $3.6 billion in deposits, while other protocols like Marginfi and Jupiter Lend also contribute to the sector's strength. Key factors supporting this growth include Solana's high network throughput, low fees, a stablecoin supply exceeding $13 billion, and innovations like real-world asset integrations and automated yield strategies. Lending now accounts for a substantial share of Solana's broader DeFi ecosystem, which hit $8.8 billion in TVL, reflecting a shift toward sustainable financial operations over speculative trading. While concentration in a few protocols raises systemic risk concerns, analysts view this trend as a sign of Solana's maturing DeFi landscape. The sector's future resilience will depend on stable asset prices, continued stablecoin inflows, and the development of new financial tools, particularly for cross-chain and institutional use. For now, Solana's lending market remains a standout amid turbulent market conditions.
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North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis has issued a stark warning that Congress must act by early 2025 to pass critical cryptocurrency legislation, or risk it being derailed by political gridlock and the 2026 midterm elections. Speaking to Bloomberg, Tillis highlighted the urgency as the government shutdown, ongoing since October 1, and disputes over funding have stalled progress on key bills like the CLARITY Act, which seeks to clarify regulatory oversight of digital assets between the CFTC and SEC. Despite bipartisan support—evidenced by the House passing the CLARITY Act and the earlier GENIUS Act becoming law—Senate discussions have faltered due to a leaked DeFi proposal and the shutdown. Recent closed-door meetings with industry leaders show renewed bipartisan efforts, with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong noting 90% of issues resolved and a potential Thanksgiving deadline. However, skepticism persists, with Polymarket data indicating only a 20% chance of passage by 2025. As other nations advance their digital asset frameworks, the U.S. risks falling behind if it cannot overcome political paralysis. Tillis emphasized that failure to act by February could render the current push for crypto reform effectively “dead,” underscoring the fragile momentum in Washington.
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The Morning Minute newsletter by Tyler Warner highlights significant developments in the crypto market, with a focus on the launch of the first U.S. spot Solana ETFs, including the Bitwise Spot Solana ETF (BSOL) and Grayscale Solana Trust, alongside Litecoin and Hedera ETFs. This marks Solana’s entry into the ETF space, following Bitcoin and Ethereum, with BSOL uniquely offering staking to compound yields. Trading near $200, Solana’s momentum as a top-5 crypto by market cap is bolstered by this move, enhancing liquidity and access for institutional and retirement accounts. However, the absence of BlackRock, a dominant player in BTC and ETH ETFs, suggests tempered expectations for inflows. Other news includes slight declines in major cryptos like BTC (-1% at $114,500) and ETH (-1% at $4,120), a $500M raise by MegaETH in its ICO, and political moves to ban crypto trading for U.S. elected officials. Additionally, Ethereum treasury stock ETHZ surged 14% after a $40M ETH sale, while NFT and memecoin markets showed mixed results. France’s potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Mt. Gox’s delayed repayments also made headlines, reflecting the dynamic and evolving crypto landscape.
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OKX, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has listed Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) on its spot platform, allowing trading against Tether (USDT) starting at 8:00 UTC after a pre-open session. This listing coincides with renewed market interest in VIRTUAL, which recently achieved a three-month high and a 90% value increase over the past week, despite a recent 7.8% dip to $1.43. Community sentiment remains strongly bullish, with 87% of traders optimistic and analysts forecasting price targets up to $3.2. The network has also experienced significant growth, with daily active wallets surpassing 10,000 and whale transactions rising 240% week-over-week. This momentum is fueled by ecosystem expansions, including AI agent integrations and the listing of agent tokens on Coinbase, enhancing VIRTUAL's utility. OKX has implemented measures like price restrictions and a $10,000 limit on orders during the initial trading minutes to manage volatility. As Virtuals Protocol regains market attention, its ability to sustain this upward trajectory remains to be seen, but current trends and strategic developments signal a promising revival for the altcoin.
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StoneCo, a Brazilian fintech company, has captured investor attention with a remarkable 139.4% year-to-date stock gain, alongside recent weekly and monthly increases of 3.9% and 3.6%, respectively, despite a 63.4% decline over five years. The article by Simply Wall St highlights a compelling turnaround story fueled by Brazil’s evolving digital payments landscape and regulatory clarity, which, combined with StoneCo’s focus on small business ecosystems, has shifted investor sentiment toward optimism. Valuation analyses underscore the stock’s potential, with an Excess Returns model indicating a 53.2% undervaluation and a Price-to-Sales (P/S) Fair Ratio of 3.08x against a current 2.02x, suggesting a discount to its fundamental value. Financial metrics are strong, with a 23.78% Return on Equity and a projected earnings per share of $11.82. Additionally, the Narratives tool on Simply Wall St allows investors to craft personalized valuation stories, with community fair value estimates for StoneCo ranging from $14.37 to $19.97 per share. While the stock appears undervalued across multiple metrics, the article emphasizes a long-term, data-driven perspective and notes it is not financial advice, encouraging investors to consider their own objectives and the latest company developments.
