March jobs report expected to show hiring slowed, unemployment rate held steady before Trump's tariffs

Key Points

  • The March jobs report is expected to show a rise in nonfarm payrolls by 140,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
  • Investors are concerned that President Trump's tariff policies could slow economic growth, potentially leading to a recession.
  • Recent data indicates a cooling but not contracting labor market, with low layoffs and reduced job openings.

Summary

The upcoming March jobs report, set to be released amidst market turmoil following President Trump's tariff announcements, is anticipated to reflect a slight decrease in job growth with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 140,000, down from February's 151,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. This report comes at a time when investors are increasingly anxious about the potential economic slowdown due to Trump's tariff policies, which could push the U.S. towards a recession. Despite these concerns, the labor market has shown signs of cooling rather than contracting, with hiring slowing but layoffs remaining low. Recent data also indicates a decrease in job openings and a stable but less dynamic labor market environment. Economists are uncertain if the March report will provide clear insights into the impact of Trump's policies, especially since the bulk of the tariffs were not yet in effect during the reporting period. However, there's speculation that the anticipation of these policies might have already influenced hiring decisions.

yahoo
April 4, 2025
Stocks
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