How Trump came up with his 'reciprocal' tariff formula

Key Points

  • The methodology for calculating reciprocal tariffs was based on a country's trade surplus with the US, using a formula that considers import and export figures from the US Census Bureau for 2024.
  • The formula uses trade surplus as the numerator, divided by total exports, with adjustments for price elasticity of import demand and import prices, which effectively cancel each other out.
  • President Trump announced a 50% discount on the calculated tariffs, terming it a "kind reciprocal" policy, and set a 10% baseline tariff for countries not subject to additional duties from the formula.
  • The new tariffs will push the US's weighted-average tariff rate to 29%, the highest in over a century, significantly altering the global trading system.

Summary

President Trump's administration has introduced a new tariff calculation methodology aimed at achieving trade reciprocity, which was detailed in a statement from the Office of the United States Trade Representative. The approach simplifies the calculation by focusing primarily on a country's trade surplus with the US, using data from the US Census Bureau for 2024. The formula involves dividing the trade surplus by total exports, with adjustments for import demand and price elasticity, which are set to cancel each other out. Despite the complexity of achieving true reciprocity, the administration's method aims to drive bilateral trade deficits to zero. Trump announced a 50% discount on these calculated tariffs, labeling it a "kind reciprocal" policy, alongside a 10% baseline tariff for countries not otherwise affected. This policy shift, if implemented, would significantly increase the US's average tariff rate to 29%, marking a historic high and potentially reshaping global trade dynamics. However, this approach has sparked debate and questions regarding its alignment with economic research on trade deficits.

yahoo
April 3, 2025
Stocks
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